We all know the Wings have a solid set of defensive prospects currently playing in Grand Rapids. I've also seen lots of people on twitter (yes, this is my fault for reading what people have to say on twitter) freaking out about possible trades since one or more of these players are usually mentioned.
Let's take a look at the current Wings D, the possible top prospects, and what might happen in the coming years.
PLAYERS SIGNED TO A LONG-TERM CONTRACT WHO AREN'T GOING ANYWHERE
1. Kronwall
2. Ericsson
Pretty self-explanatory.
YOUNG PLAYERS WITH EXPIRING RFA CONTRACTS
1. DeKeyser (RFA after this season)
2. Smith (RFA after next season)
3. Lashoff (RFA after 2015-2016 season)
I think we all agree DDK will be here for a long time. Smith is improving. He still has some work to do, but for having less than 100 games played in the NHL as of this writing, he's looking to be a pretty decent player, and actually wouldn't shock me if he was one to get traded for a top four player (I doubt he will, but teams have wanted him in the past). Lashoff is Lashoff. He's a cheap 6/7 who can block shots and kill penalties. Good depth player that if we happened to lose, not a huge deal.
YOUNG-ISH PLAYERS THE WINGS SIGNED TO A LONG(ISH)-TERM DEAL BASED ON A HALF SEASON
1. Kindl
After being sent to the press box for a few games as a healthy scratch, this contract (first year in a 4 year, $2.4M a year deal) doesn't look so good. I wouldn't count on him being here the entire time if we can entice a team to take him. He's almost 27, so I doubt there's much more developing left.
GONE BY JULY 2ND
1. Quincey
I don't think he's as bad as most Wings fans do, but he's definitely overpaid for a 4/5. The beat writers are saying he won't be re-signed, and I believe them. There have even been calls for him to be traded, so there's that.
WHERE DO WE STAND AFTER THE CURRENT TOP 7?
LOCKS:
1. Kronwall
2. Ericsson
3. DeKeyser
PROBABLY NOT GOING ANYWHERE BUT YOU NEVER KNOW:
4. Smith
NOT A KEY PART TO THE FUTURE:
5. Kindl
6. Lashoff
7. Quincey
OBVIOUS SUMMARY SECTION
The Wings have four players who are a key part to the next 3-5 seasons. This leaves 3 spots remaining, and that's if the Wings don't sign/trade for another top 4 player.
WAITING IN THE WINGS (because puns!)
1. Ouellet
2. Sproul
3. Almqu(v)ist
4. Marchenko
5. Jensen
The only player not in his rookie year in the AHL is Almquist. I believe he is no longer exempt from waivers after this season, so the Wings risk losing him. Ouellet and Marchenko have both played with the Wings this season as well, albeit briefly. Sproul is a top offensive player who still could get a call up this year, and Jensen's rookie year has been derailed by injuries, but has a high ceiling.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE FUTURE?
Ouellet, Sproul, Marchenko, and Jensen will probably start next season in GR. Jensen definitely needs another year in the minors, and I'm thinking it's better the other three play more minutes in the AHL than be possible healthy scratches half the time with the Wings. Assuming no other trades/signings, this would be the Wings top 7 to start next season:
1. Kronwall (signed for 5 more years)
2. Ericsson (signed for 6 more years)
3. DeKeyser (RFA, will be here for a while)
4. Smith (RFA after next season)
5. Kindl
6. Lashoff
7. Almquist
That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me. The top 3 are fine, but after that, it's very weak. Too early to give up on Smith, but don't want to count on him to be a top four guy since he hasn't proven it yet on a consistent enough basis
But here's where the "trade" issue comes in. Those top three aren't going anywhere for two-three years and Smith has played his way into the top 6. Seeing that there are only three spots left, basic math tells us the four top prospects in GR (Ouellet, Sproul, Marchenko, Jensen) is greater than the three openings. Yikes. There are also new draft picks every year signing contracts that are willing to push these players on the depth chart, most notably, Mattias Backman, currently playing in Sweden. And if the Wings sign a top-four guy this summer (as they need to do)....yeah. Overripe joke.
CONCLUSION
It's pretty obvious the Wings need an improvement on their current defense if they want to be serious cup contenders in the next two years. They have the prospect depth to improve their team (salary cap issues be damned...) and they should take advantage of this. If one or two of these players gets traded, don't get upset as long as it makes the current team better.
If the Wings are secretly going through a rebuild, then I wouldn't trade any of these players. I would see which develop the best and go from there. I doubt this is in the plans. I would expect the Wings to be more active at this years trade deadline and/or free agency to try and get another top level NHL defenseman in the line up. I don't know if it will be a younger prospect or maybe Smith, but something has to happen for the Wings to get back to being a Stanley Cup Contender in the near future.
Twitter - @BlueLinePatrol
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